Jellicoe Memorandum to Balfour, 29 October, 1916

Memorandum

The very serious and ever-increasing menace of the enemy's submarine attack on trade is by far the most pressing question at the present time.

2. There appears to be a serious danger that our losses in merchant ships, combined with the losses in neutral merchant ships, may by the early summer of 1917 have such a serious effect upon the import of food and other necessaries into the allied countries as to force us into accepting peace terms, which the military position on the Continent would not justify and which would fall far short of our desires.

3. The methods which have been used in the past for attacking submarines are not now meeting with the success which has hitherto attended them. The reasons for our present want of success, or for the difficulties in the way of success, are, firstly, the increased size and radius of enemy submarines, which enables them to work in waters so far afield as to make it increasingly difficult to trap them; secondly, the fact that they are attacking more frequently with the torpedo, and that this prevents the use of methods which were applicable to submarines which came to the surface